RP Data – Rismark Home Value Index Release

31 August 2011

RP Data – Rismark Home Value Index Release

While dwelling values in Australia's combined capital cities declined by a seasonally adjusted (s.a.) 0.6% in the month of July, and regional markets fell by a similar 0.7% (s.a.), homes in Sydney (+0.1% s.a.), Darwin (+0.6% s.a.) and Canberra (+1.9% s.a.) managed to produce small capital gains.

Based on approximately 178,000 home sales over the year to July, the market-leading RP Data-Rismark Hedonic Home Value Index recorded a seasonally-adjusted fall of -0.6 per cent in capital city home values over the month of July (-0.9 per cent in raw terms).

Canberra (+1.9 per cent s.a.), Darwin (+0.6 per cent s.a.) and Sydney (+0.1 per cent s.a.) bucked the soft trend set by the other cities, which, led by Melbourne homes (down -1.4 per cent s.a.), all registered declines during July.

Over the first seven months of 2011, Australian capital city home values were down -3.4 per cent. According to RP Data research director Tim Lawless, this national result conceals wide divergences across the individual cities.

Mr Lawless pointed to the example of Melbourne homes, which after rising by a stunning 29 per cent over 2009 and 2010 had now corrected by -5.3 per cent in 2011. In contrast, dwelling values in Canberra had actually risen in value by 1.8 per cent over the course of 2011.

Over the 12 months to July 2011, Australian capital city home values are off -2.9 per cent. Mr Lawless said that it looks like a multi-speed housing market: Brisbane (-6.6 per cent), Perth (-6.3 per cent), and Melbourne (-4.3 per cent) have all experienced significant declines over the last year, whereas the 35 per cent of Australia's capital city population that lives in Canberra (+1.9 per cent) and Sydney (+0.5 per cent) had realised capital gains.

According to Christopher Joye, Rismark International's economist, "Over the last 11 years, Sydney home values increased by a modest 5.6 per cent per annum compared to an Australian capital city average of 7.8 per cent per annum. Sydney housing has massively underperformed Perth (10.4 per cent per annum), Brisbane (9.7 per cent per annum) and Melbourne (8.9 per cent per annum) housing over this period. After years of being the perennial laggard, Sydney housing now looks to be a relatively resilient store of wealth."

Mr Joye added that Australia's housing market could be at a crucial inflexion point.

"The financial markets are pricing in five rate cuts while leading economists from Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank, Westpac and Macquarie Bank all believe that the RBA's next move will be down.

As the most interest rate sensitive sector of the economy, the housing market will be the chief beneficiary of any decision by the RBA to reduce the cost of debt. Indeed, borrowers are already benefiting from de facto rate cuts.

The inversion in the yield curve has seen many banks start to slash the cost of fixed-rate home loans. Today lenders like Members Equity Bank are offering 3 year, fixed-rate loans of just 6.35 per cent, which is well below the standard variable rate benchmark of 7.8 per cent.

And while the rhetoric coming out of the central bank of late has been conflicting, UBS believes that the Governor's testimony to Parliament last week shifted the RBA to a ‘neutral' stance," Mr Joye said.

"If rates do remain on hold, or begin to fall, we would expect to see Australia's housing market find a base and begin to generate capital gains again. If the RBA has really come to the end of its tightening cycle - which we would find surprising given the high core inflation revealed over the last six months - 2011-12 will likely be judged one of the best buying windows seen in quite some time. The turning point will arrive when otherwise hawkish Australian consumers accept the notion that rates are not going to inexorably increase," Mr Joye said.

Mr Lawless said that the current weakness in housing market conditions is related to the ongoing anxiety consumers have about their future finances as reflected in the latest consumer confidence data.

"According to the August Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment survey, Australians still expect two interest rate hikes over the next 12 months. Combined with volatile equity prices, global financial market instability, and soft house prices, Australians are understandably reluctant to make high commitment decisions at the moment," Mr Lawless said.

Mr Lawless also highlighted the premium housing market where comparatively larger declines in value will likely present patient investors with attractive opportunities during the next six months.

"Dwelling values across the most expensive capital city suburbs are down -6.2 per cent over the first seven months of year. This compares with a much smaller -2.3 per cent fall across ‘middle priced suburbs' and a -2.1 per cent decline in the cheapest suburbs. Clearly, the ongoing financial market volatility is having a more marked impact on wealthier households, as are weak business conditions outside of the resources sector," Mr Lawless said.

Despite some improvements in selling times in previous months, the average number of days it takes to sell a home has increased in June and July. Other key leading indicators also imply that market conditions remain soft.

"The build up in the number of homes being advertised for sale together with the slow-down in buyer demand has once again seen average selling times expand. Across the capital cities the average house is taking 55 days to sell compared with 45 days at the same time last year. We have also seen the level of vendor discounting expand to -7.2 per cent from -5.7 per cent in July 2010, which is in line with the lowest reading recorded during 2008. Finally, the weighted average auction clearance rate across Australia's capital cities has remained slightly below 50 per cent over the past seven weeks".

"If these soft trends persist, the Spring Selling Season is likely to open up some attractive investment opportunities for prospective buyers. In contrast, the selling environment is likely to be challenging for vendors, particularly if they have unrealistic price expectations," Mr Lawless said.

Source - RP Data Rismark

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